The Myth of a Self-Made Man
When he first came on to the political scene, many thought Christopher Luxon was the new John Key. Both had modest upbringings, went to business school at the same university, and made a fortune overseas. In midlife they gave up lucrative careers to pursue a burning ambition for high office. The media adored them for it.
Key made his rise to power look effortless. There was the same air of inevitability when Luxon became leader of the National Party just one year into his first parliamentary term. It had taken Key longer to get there. But the circumstances for Luxon were less auspicious. National was polling 40-45% when Key seized the leadership in November 2006. On the eve of Luxon’s victory, opinion polls gave National an average of 27% support.
Luxon would have to capture something that eluded his predecessors: disillusionment with Jacinda Ardern. The Prime Minister once appeared invincible. Ardern’s skill in leading the country through the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic won her the respect and admiration of most New Zealanders. Having successfully eliminated the virus twice, and presided over a miraculous economic recovery, Ardern and the Labour Party won a historic majority at the general election.
The National Party was buried in a landslide from which some believed it could never emerge. A succession of leaders had failed to turn public opinion. Those voters once charmed by Key now gravitated to Ardern. Ironically, it was nostalgia for the Key era that motivated the affluent, property-owning middle-class to vote Labour. Ardern gave them an illusion of normality. Judith Collins’ fire and brimstone was never going to work.
That is a distant memory now. At the time of writing, New Zealand has more cases of COVID-19 per capita than Britain and the United States. If not for the vaccine, thousands would be dying. Critics of the Ardern Government will be loath to admit that the ‘no jab, no job’ policy was effective. But government approval ratings have collapsed since the Delta outbreak last year. Fewer and fewer like or trust Ardern.
There is an opening for Key’s protégé. Opinion polls gave National an average of 34% in January-February; a seven percentage point increase since Luxon became leader. The gap between Labour and National has narrowed from 24 percentage points in the election to just six percentage points. But neither is likely to win outright in 2023. The ability to form a government will depend on the minor parties. ACT, and perhaps NZ First, could give National a majority.
There is suddenly an appetite for change. But what is Luxon other than a pale imitation of the man he considers to be New Zealand’s greatest prime minister? In his recent state of the nation address, Luxon spoke with rare clarity and conviction. The portrait we get is that of a 20th century liberal with an unwavering faith in the redemptive power of markets.
If only the government would step back and let the private sector flourish. Businesses can be trusted to look after the workers. And individuals know how to spend their money better than politicians. Those who fall on hard times should be given a hand up, but only long enough to stand on their own two feet. Social spending is an investment and the returns are bad. What the poor need is a Protestant work ethic.
The speech could have been read by any National leader. But it is Luxon’s authenticity that made it compelling. In many ways, Luxon is a more reified Key. The former Chief Executive has cultivated a powerful myth about his tenure at Air New Zealand. A self-made man, he relates to ordinary people. His approach of ‘high performance engagement’, once praised by Ardern, is said to have transformed the airline. Productivity and financial performance were improved in direct collaboration with the workers.
Luxon, the technocratic populist, can get results. It is too soon to know if the quaint promise of lower taxes and ‘more business in government’ will lure enough voters back to National. For the middle-class, who aspire to a comfortable retirement, Ardern has done her job. With Omicron near its peak, and the country about to open up, many think the pandemic is over. The fear of dying from a virus has given way to something else: a desire to live again.